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Manpower professionnal5/11/2023 ![]() Russia may be an authoritarian regime, but it cannot suppress all dissent, just as the Soviet Union could not suppress discontent with the war in Afghanistan. The use of conscripts is particularly controversial because they are, in theory, not supposed to fight outside Russia proper. Today, an engaged public and organized mothers groups make casualties highly visible. In that conflict, the Soviet Union lost an estimated 10 million soldiers and another 14 million civilians but persevered through terrible losses and repeated battlefield setbacks to achieve ultimate victory. Russia today is not the country of World War II (called the Great Patriotic War in Russia) that marched to victory over the bodies of its dead. Russia is conducting this invasion on a shoestring. Total coalition forces numbered about 750,000. To further put the Russian force into perspective, the United States sent about 540,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in 1991 to liberate Kuwait from Iraq. Thus, the United States has about twice the trained personnel that Russia does. To put the Russian force into perspective, the United States has an active-duty force of 1.3 million and organized, trained reserves of 800,000. Russia has tried to create reserve forces like those in NATO, where reservists are organized into units that train regularly, but such efforts have not made much headway. In theory, former soldiers could be recalled to service, and Russia is likely doing some of that, but these soldiers receive no training or follow-up after their active service. The downsized military increased the proportion of volunteers (called “contract soldiers” in Russia) to about two-thirds, improved training, and streamlined the bloated officer corps. Russia reformed its military after poor operational performance in the 2008 invasion of Georgia, where Russia won but with many tactical shortcomings that showed a lack of skill and training. Today, Russia maintains a total military of about 900,000, of which 280,000 are in the army, according to the latest figures from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained a military of about 3.5 million. ![]() The loss of skilled troops and leaders will be felt in the conduct of tactical operations. However, these reinforcements and replacements likely lack the training and experience of the early deployers, especially elite units like paratroopers. Russia has moved reinforcements and replacements into Ukraine to compensate for these losses, which will offset them to some degree. Thus, Russia may have lost about a quarter of its initial combat force. Ground combat troops numbered about 140,000. However, that included militias in the Donbas and security forces ( Rosgvardiya) for occupation. The initial invasion force numbered about 190,000 troops. ![]() To put that into perspective, Russia reported 14,400 killed through 10 years of war in Afghanistan. That would mean that Russia has lost between 21,000 and 45,000 troops in four weeks of conflict. Wounded who cannot rapidly return to duty generally number about twice the number of dead. NATO estimates that Russia has lost between 7,000 and 15,000 soldiers. Although reinforcements and replacements can offset some of these casualties, the loss of trained troops will impair military operations and eventually have a political effect. These casualties are not on the scale of World War II but are large compared with the relatively small size of the Russian military today. In four weeks of combat, Russia may have lost 25 percent of its initial attacking force. Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses.Building Sustainable and Inclusive Democracy.Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations.Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts.Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation.Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation.Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy.
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